CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z TUE 04/11 - 06Z WED 05/11 2003
ISSUED: 03/11 21:16Z
FORECASTER: HAKLANDER

General thunderstorms are forecast across Denmark, Southern Scandinavia, Northeastern Germany, Poland, Northwestern Ukraine, Belarus and the Baltic States.

General thunderstorms are forecast across Southern Balkan and Western Turkey.

SYNOPSIS

A large, sharpening upper trough across Scandinavia moves eastward and merges with a quasi-stationary ULL across Greece. Meanwhile, an upper ridge, building from the SW, is expected to stabilize conditions over the Benelux region.

DISCUSSION

...Baltic Sea area...
Marginal MUCAPE might suffice to yield a few thunderstorms in the polar air mass that is advected over the area behind a cold front. Due to a significant decrease of low level shear, convection is not expected to reach severe limits, as it did on Monday.

...Southern Balkan...
Kinematic setup for thunderstorms is rapidly weakening and severe storms are no longer forecast. However, low to moderate MUCAPE with low CIN should enable some thunderstorm development.

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